Bitcoin: Black Swans Are Lurking

Bitcoin's blow-off top at $25k on August 14th signifies the end of a reflexive rally, representing the "return to normal" stage of a bubble.We anticipate Bitcoin is entering "phase 2" of its first-ever bear market, which can decrease BTC by another 60% to 80%.Tight monetary conditions, regulatory encroachment into crypto, pending collapses/insolvencies, and the spread of Monkeypox can push Bitcoin to $13k, $11k, or $8k - $5k by November 2022.Bitcoin: This Time Is Different!As opposed to the grassroots movement it once was, institutional fund flows primarily drove Bitcoin's (BTC-USD) most recent bull trend. In 2020, the US Federal Reserve lowered interest rates to 0 and provided over $2.3 trillion in loans to support the economy. This, combined with Covid-19 stimulus checks given directly to citizens, worked to funnel billions of excess liquidity into the crypto casino.BTC:USD - 2W (TradingView)With Bitcoin's unraveling and dip below $20k, much of the magic surrounding cryptocurrencies has diminished. We believe the current bear market is forcing investors to realize numerous hard truths, including: Bitcoin's unsustainable growth rate, Incoming regulations for Ethereum (ETH-USD) and DeFi, The crypto market's over-reliance on loose monetary policy and a bullish stock market. After a violent rally from June 18th to August 15th, Bitcoin's all-time chart has one of the most bearish patterns I've ever seen. To understand this, you m...