S&P 500 needs to hold this level to avoid a June swoon

The odds of the broader market seeing a choppy summer are declining as odds of a June swoon rise, according to BTIG. "We have recently been expecting a ‘summer-chop’ in the 3,800-4,250 zone before an eventual breakdown towards 3,400-3,500. We thought a momentum reversion where winners got bought and losers sold would create chop at the index level, but last week is a reminder that the risk continues to be to the downside," technical strategist Jonathan Krinsky wrote in a note. "The summer-chop scenario is still in play as long as 3,800 holds, but the odds of a ‘June Swoon’ straight to 3,400 have gone up significantly, in our view." "There are now just a quarter of S&P 500 (SP500) (NYSEARCA:SPY) stocks above their 200 DMA, the lowest for this cycle," Krinsky said. "However, we are still not to what we would consider washout levels. The main hideouts remain Energy