SummaryDespite a disastrous 2022 for BITO (and crypto in general), substantial downside risk remains given the moment we are at in the global liquidity cycle.Bitcoin continues to act as NASDAQ beta and has performed poorly as an “inflation hedge."There will be an opportunity to buy once the global liquidity cycle turns, but this will likely be at far lower prices.I am a long-term believer in the crypto space, particularly in the ability for Bitcoin (BTC-USD) to serve as a viable alternative to fiat money and a store of value with legitimate scarcity (which itself is a scarce resource). Unfortunately, far too often crypto advocates forget that they live in a world dominated by fiat currencies and central bank monetary policy. Macro drives Bitcoin, and not the other way around. If you get cocky and think you've found a "revolutionary technology" that can drive substantial positive returns while the remainder of financial assets lose value and global money supply contracts, you will end up being the bag-holder for more disciplined institutional investors.Google FinanceLook no further than the Ethereum (ETH-USD) Merge debacle - hopeful investors (mostly retail) piled into ETH ahead of the merge as they expected the currency to outperform, pushing ETH/USD to nearly $2000 from the middle of August from lows of $1000. Already, a mere 5 days after the merge, ETH has fallen to nearly $1300 and a retest of the June lows looks likely. Wh...
